When prices are all over the place, pricing stops feeling like math.
It starts feeling like gambling.
This page explains when the last sold price matters, when the average matters more, and how to avoid anchoring to the wrong number when the market looks chaotic.
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Why this situation creates bad decisions
Wide price ranges usually mean one of three things:
- Demand is inconsistent
- Condition differences matter more than expected
- Sellers are exiting at different levels of urgency
In these cases, blindly choosing a number creates false confidence.
You feel “priced right” without understanding why.
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What the last sold price actually represents
The last sold price is a **moment**, not a rule.
It reflects:
- One buyer’s urgency
- One seller’s willingness to accept
- One specific condition and timing
The last sold matters most when:
- Sales are frequent
- Prices are stable
- Demand hasn’t shifted recently
If sales are sparse or erratic, the last sold can be misleading.
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What the average price actually represents
The average smooths out noise.
But it also hides reality.
Averages matter when:
- There are enough data points
- Sales span similar conditions
- The market hasn’t recently changed
Averages fail when:
- A few high or low sales skew the number
- The item sells infrequently
- Recent demand is weaker than past demand
An average is only useful if it reflects *current* behavior.
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Why neither number works on its own
When prices swing widely, the problem usually isn’t the math.
It’s uncertainty about demand.
If you feel stuck choosing between last sold and average, it’s often because:
- You don’t trust the item’s velocity
- You’re unsure who the real buyer is
- You’re pricing defensively instead of strategically
No number fixes that uncertainty by itself.
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How to choose without guessing
Use the **last sold** when:
- Sales are recent and frequent
- Prices cluster tightly
- Your item closely matches condition and timing
Lean on the **average** when:
- Sales are spread out over time
- Prices vary due to condition or presentation
- You’re planning to hold, not rush an exit
If neither feels right, that’s information.
It means the market is unclear, not that you’re missing a formula.
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How to test price intelligently
When uncertainty is high:
- Start at a price that invites reaction, not perfection
- Watch buyer behavior, not ego
- Adjust based on messages, offers, and silence
Pricing is a test, not a declaration.
The goal is learning quickly without burning margin.
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The mistake that costs the most money
The biggest mistake here is anchoring emotionally:
- To the highest sale you saw
- Or to the lowest exit you’re afraid of
Both lead to bad decisions.
Price should be set based on **expected behavior**, not fear or hope.
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The question that settles it
Ask yourself this:
If I listed this today at the average price, would I be comfortable holding it if nothing happened?
If the answer is no, the average isn’t helping you.
If the answer is yes, the last sold may not matter.
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What this usually connects to
This confusion often ties back to:
- Weak confidence in demand
- Over-reliance on comps
- Poor differentiation between similar items
- Lack of pricing exit rules
Those are system issues, not math problems.
This page exists to help you price with intent instead of anxiety.
One last sold price is noise. Averages reveal the real market.